Team FrieDONUT

The Pecking Order came out of the F1 fantasy pool I am part of. I have been part of this pool for quite a few years and only in the past two years have I started to look deeper into how I make my picks. I would usually pick according to my feelings about the teams and the drivers, which always resulted in mixed and unpredictable outcomes.

Since I've upgraded to a proper excel sheet, which I nicknamed “The Bot,” my picks have been more consistent (I am not last!!!) The data gave me a reference point to inflect my feelings onto, and the results were much more rewarding. The Pecking Order provides a space where I can share my insight and rationale along with the data points.

I hope you enjoy this as much as I do! Lights out!

- Mr. Calvin Sun

This is an experiment!

As with everyone, predictions are full of follies and holes. Each person has a set of biases and variables. For my set of variables, I’ve attempted to take in historical stats for each driver (i.e. % of poles, wins, retirements, past points for the specific GP, etc.) as well as their current points this season. This is then summed up in the [Driver Score/RD] column.

On the right side of the selected excel sheet is an experiment related to the social media and news trends of each driver. The numbers and stats are point-in-time data from [former] Social Mention. The idea is not whether media affects the performance of the drivers but whether their current performance is reflected in media and thereby contributes numerically to their current form [Trend]. The end result is in the [DRI Score + Social/RD] column.

We can tell that the rankings do not provide a realistic prediction at the moment. However, they can provide a talking point as to the discrepancies. These discrepancies may also reveal other variables and factors that may provide greater accuracy (if there is ever such a thing in sports predictions).

Again, let’s keep it fun, it is a game, after all.